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COMMUNITY ISD - Demographic Study - January 2008

Table of Contents

I.          Introduction

II.        Executive Summary

III.             Community Independent School District Demographic Trends, 2000-2015

IV.       Enrollment Projections by District, Campus, and Grade Level

V.        New Housing and Land Usage Forecast

VI.       District Maps Delineating Student Locations by Attendance Level

VII.     Proposed Elementary Attendance Zones

 

I.          Introduction

School District Strategies, LLC (SDS) was contracted by the Community Independent School District (CISD/the District) to complete a demographic study by no later than February 1, 2008.  The comprehensive study was to include analysis of historical population trends in Community, current student population numbers, geocoding of the current student population, projections of future student population characteristics, and estimations of student growth for ten years through build out.  Additionally, SDS was asked to provide maps of the District with estimated growth areas.

Data to complete the study was gathered from multiple sources, including the United States Census Bureau, the 2005 American Community Survey, the Texas Department of State Health Services, the Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer, Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research, the Texas Education Agency, and proprietary housing data and analysis provided by Residential Strategies, Inc. (RSI).  Through the collection of data and statistical analysis provided by SDS staff, the study was completed to the extent that District objectives were met and exceeded.

Special assistance was provided by Billy Myers.  SDS is honored to have been selected to complete the study.  Questions or comments concerning the contents of the study should be directed to the staff of School District Strategies.

 

II.        Executive Summary

The staff of School District Strategies, accessing proprietary housing data collected by Residential Strategies, Inc. (RSI) and population and student data of the U.S. Census Bureau, Texas Department of State Health Services (TDSHS), the Texas Education Agency, and the Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research (IDSER) at the University of Texas at San Antonio, developed an analysis of the student population trends and projections for the Community Independent School District.  Enrollment projections were developed through a combination of cohort survival methodology and proprietary enrollment projection techniques utilizing home closings, historical and predicted, and students/home closing ratios.

            The school district will continue to grow, with the rate of growth to accelerate beyond recent history.  Expansion within the sub-groups will be consistent with the recent past.  Hispanic students will continue to increase at a faster rate than other sub-groups.  Likewise, the percentage of children classified as Economically Disadvantaged will continue to increase at a pace greater than the overall student population.        

III.       Community Independent School District Demographic Trends, 2000-2015

The United States population grew by 14,085,228 (5.01% increase) individuals between 2000 and 2005.   Over the same time period, the Texas population increased at a much faster pace, mirroring the trend of the Southern United States.  During that same period, Texas added 1,923,224 individuals, an increase of 9.22%.  Collin County, however, surpassed that growth rate through an explosion that saw the population increase by 33.36%, increasing from 491,675 individuals in 2000 to an estimated 655,687 in 2005.

            The trend of explosive growth is projected to continue through 2015.  The total U.S. population is expected to be 322,365,787.  Texas is projected to have a population of 26,585,801 while Collin County will continue the rapid growth rate, approaching 1,103,972 individuals by 2015.1  Texas, like the entire southern portion of the United States, sustained rapid population increases in the 1990-2000 decade.  According to TDSHS, Collin County also grew at a fast pace; increasing by 86.22% over the 10 year period.  The future for the county will differ only slightly from its recent past, with a predicted increase of 42.07% in population through 2015 over the estimated 2008 numbers.

            Among the sub-groups, the rate of change has been significantly different.  In 1990, the Anglo portion of the population comprised 86% of the total.  It is estimated that Anglos will decrease to 68.26% of the total population in Collin County in 2015.  Likewise, The Hispanic portion of the population will have increased from 6.89% in 1990 to 16.44%. 

 

 

Total

%Change

Anglo

%Change

Black

%Change

Hispanic

%Change

Other

%Change

1990

264036

 

227100

 

10752

 

18161

 

8023

 

2000

491675

86.22

379088

66.93

24509

127.95

50510

178.12

37568

368.25

2005E

655687

33.36

487011

28.47

34933

42.53

79325

57.05

54418

44.85

2008P

777059

18.51

567039

16.43

42142

20.64

101692

28.20

66186

21.63

2015P

1103972

42.07

753569

32.90

65109

54.50

181458

78.44

103836

56.89

 

Source: TDSHS

 

            The distribution of the U.S. population in 2000 found a larger percentage of people in the South.  Projections through 2015 and beyond will see that share of the total population increase for southern states, including Texas.  Collin County will be a part of that increase, experiencing growth increases even greater than the U.S., the South, and Texas.

            The total population of the United States is expected to increase in the fifteen-year period between 2000 and 2015 by 40,943,881 individuals; a 14.55% change.  At the same time, Texas, much like the entire southern portion of the nation, is expected to increase by 27.5%, a rate almost twice that of the entire country.  Meanwhile, the population increase in Collin County is predicted to track the same level of increases.2  When using estimates of growth provided by the American Community Survey, Collin County, with an increase of 33.36%, will grow at a pace exceeding that of the State and more than twice that of the U.S

            Within the overall growth projections, sub-groups will also continue to change as they have in the recent past.  The Hispanic population will continue to become greater percentages of the whole for the District.  The Hispanic population in the District increased from 10.4% of the total student population in 2000-01 to 15.1% in 2006-07.  That trend is expected to continue into the future.

            According to population change estimates prepared by the Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research (IDSER) at the University of Texas at San Antonio, every scenario for Texas and Collin County population increases from 2000 through 2015 indicates the greatest increases in the Hispanic population.  Estimates range from the conservative 29.76% from 2000 to 2015 to the aggressive 242.49% for the same time frame.5  

 

 

1 Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer, Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research, College of Public Policy, The University of Texas at San Antonio, Sept. 2006

2U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Interim Projections of the Total Population for the United States and States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2030

3Residential Strategies, Cumulative Population Projections, May, 2007

42005 American Community Survey, Scenario 1.0

5Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer, Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research, College of Public Policy, The University of Texas at San Antonio, Sept. 2006

 

                     Percent Distribution of Projected Population by Region

 

 

2000

2005

2010

2015

U.S.

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Northeast

19.0

18.5

18.1

17.5

Midwest

22.9

22.3

21.8

21.3

South

35.6

36.2

36.8

37.4

West

22.5

22.9

23.4

23.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interim Projections of the Total Population for the United States and Texas

 

 

Geographic Area

Census April 1, 2000

Projections July 1, 2005

Projections July 1, 2010

Projections July 1, 2015

United States

281,421,906

        295,507,134

     308,935,581

   322,365,787

Texas

20,851,820

            22,775,044

       24,648,888